Intelligence
Active forecasts
Live probability estimates derived from prediction markets, fundamental data, and proprietary scenario models. Updated when material information changes the estimate by 5+ percentage points.
Forecast dashboard
ECB cuts rates by July 2026
UK capital gains tax rises to 28%
Mediterranean luxury RE demand +15% YoY
Fed holds rates through Q4 2026
Crypto total market cap exceeds $5T
Published analysis
Dubai vs Cyprus vs Portugal: Property Investment Comparison 2026
Three jurisdictions competing for UHNWI property capital compared across 12 dimensions. Dubai offers 0% tax and 8-12% yields. Cyprus provides EU access, 0% CGT, and imminent Schengen entry. Portugal's golden visa is restructured and NHR ended. Full assessment for investors with $2M-20M+ property budgets.
Programmable Money, Digital ID, and Surveillance Infrastructure: What Investors Need to Know
137 countries are exploring CBDCs. The EU's digital identity wallet launches in 2026. Surveillance infrastructure is densifying globally. A grounded assessment of what's verifiable, what's speculative, and what it means for your portfolio.
Prediction Markets vs Traditional Forecasting: 2024-2025 Track Record
Polymarket called 49 of 50 states in the 2024 election while polls missed swing states by 3-5 points. With $10B+ monthly volume across platforms, prediction markets have outperformed traditional forecasting methods. Here's the data, the failure modes, and what it means for investment decisions.
UK Capital Gains Tax: Probability Assessment 2026-2027
UK CGT rates rose from 10%/20% to 18%/24% in the October 2024 Budget. BADR increases to 18% in April 2026. Carried interest moves to income tax. With fiscal pressures mounting, we model the probability of further increases and their portfolio impact.
ECB Rates and Mediterranean Property: Q2-Q4 2026 Forecast
The ECB has cut rates eight times from 4.00% to 2.00%. Mediterranean property markets are responding - Greece up 6-8%, Cyprus 5-7%, Spain 3-5%. This assessment models the probability of further cuts and maps the transmission to property prices across six markets through 2028.
How to Read Prediction Market Odds: An Investor's Guide
A contract at 73 cents means 73% probability. But that number is only useful if you know when to trust it and where it breaks down. This guide covers the mechanics of prediction market pricing, signal quality indicators, and the interpretation mistakes sophisticated investors make.
Prediction Market Data Sources: Complete Guide for Investors
Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus, FRED, ECB, and more - a complete map of free and paid data sources for building probability-informed investment models. Covers API access, data types, limitations, and how to aggregate signals across platforms.
Mediterranean Luxury Property Forecast 2026-2028: Market-by-Market Analysis
Six Mediterranean markets modelled against ECB rate cuts, UK non-dom abolition, and lifestyle migration. Greece and Cyprus lead at 6-8% annual growth; French Riviera stabilises at 1-3%. Base case (55%): 6-10% cumulative growth in prime segments through 2028. Luxury outperforms by 3-5 percentage points.
Cyprus Property Market Forecast 2026-2028: District-Level Analysis
District-by-district analysis of Cyprus property prices. Limassol at EUR 3,200/m2, Paphos leading growth at 12.9% annually. Schengen entry as a price catalyst, 0% CGT, 60-day tax residency. Three scenarios modelled: base case 52% probability of 5-8% annual growth in prime districts.
Fed Rate Path 2026: What Prediction Markets Are Pricing
The Fed holds at 4.25-4.50% while the ECB has cut to 2.00% - a 225bp transatlantic spread. Kalshi's NBER-verified perfect forecast record meets Polymarket's deep liquidity. We map FOMC meeting probabilities, the rate divergence trade, and portfolio positioning across asset classes.
Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Metaculus: Head-to-Head Comparison for Investors
Polymarket ($56B notional) vs Kalshi ($44B, CFTC-regulated) vs Metaculus (calibration-based). Nine-dimension comparison covering volume, regulation, fees, accuracy, and API access. Decision framework for which platform serves which investor need. Platform evolution scenarios through 2028.
UK Non-Dom Abolition: Portfolio Impact and Relocation Analysis
The UK non-dom regime ended 6 April 2025. 68,000 former non-doms face worldwide taxation. The TRF offers 12% on unremitted gains through 2027. Six destination jurisdictions compared: Dubai, Singapore, Switzerland, Italy, Cyprus, Greece. Capital flow scenarios and property market impact modelled through 2028.
Geopolitical Risk and Portfolio Impact: 2026 Scenario Matrix
Four geopolitical risk vectors dominate 2026: US-China trade escalation (45%), Middle East instability (25%), EU fragmentation (30%), and Taiwan Strait tensions (8%). Combined probability of at least one materialising with portfolio-level impact: 35%. Individual event probabilities mapped against asset class sensitivities with prediction market pricing.
Crypto Total Market Cap: Will It Hit $5 Trillion by 2027?
Total crypto market cap sits at ~$3.2 trillion. BTC at ~$85K post-halving, spot ETF inflows exceeding $40B, and institutional adoption accelerating. Cycle mechanics, macro liquidity, and prediction market signals point to $5T by Q2 2027 at 68% probability. Bitcoin dominance at ~55% is the key variable.
Bank of England Rate Forecast H2 2026: MPC Meeting-by-Meeting Probability Assessment
The BoE has cut 75bp from peak 5.25% to 4.50%, but sticky inflation at 3.0% complicates further easing. 62% probability of at least one additional 25bp cut in H2 2026. MPC meeting-by-meeting probabilities, macro indicators, and portfolio implications for UK-exposed investors.
AI Sub-Sector Investment Timing: Where the Smart Money Is Moving in 2026
AI infrastructure capex is approaching $300B annually. But the opportunity isn't monolithic - it's split across chips, cloud, foundation models, enterprise applications, and picks-and-shovels plays. 74% probability infrastructure spending exceeds $300B by end 2026. The question isn't whether AI grows - it's which sub-sectors peak when.
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