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Dubai vs Cyprus vs Portugal: Property Investment Comparison 2026
Three jurisdictions competing for UHNWI property capital compared across 12 dimensions. Dubai offers 0% tax and 8-12% yields. Cyprus provides EU access, 0% CGT, and imminent Schengen entry. Portugal's golden visa is restructured and NHR ended. Full assessment for investors with $2M-20M+ property budgets.
2026-2028
Programmable Money, Digital ID, and Surveillance Infrastructure: What Investors Need to Know
137 countries are exploring CBDCs. The EU's digital identity wallet launches in 2026. Surveillance infrastructure is densifying globally. A grounded assessment of what's verifiable, what's speculative, and what it means for your portfolio.
2026-2030
Prediction Markets vs Traditional Forecasting: 2024-2025 Track Record
Polymarket called 49 of 50 states in the 2024 election while polls missed swing states by 3-5 points. With $10B+ monthly volume across platforms, prediction markets have outperformed traditional forecasting methods. Here's the data, the failure modes, and what it means for investment decisions.
2026-2028
UK Capital Gains Tax: Probability Assessment 2026-2027
UK CGT rates rose from 10%/20% to 18%/24% in the October 2024 Budget. BADR increases to 18% in April 2026. Carried interest moves to income tax. With fiscal pressures mounting, we model the probability of further increases and their portfolio impact.
Oct 2026 - Apr 2027
ECB Rates and Mediterranean Property: Q2-Q4 2026 Forecast
The ECB has cut rates eight times from 4.00% to 2.00%. Mediterranean property markets are responding - Greece up 6-8%, Cyprus 5-7%, Spain 3-5%. This assessment models the probability of further cuts and maps the transmission to property prices across six markets through 2028.
Q3-Q4 2026
How to Read Prediction Market Odds: An Investor's Guide
A contract at 73 cents means 73% probability. But that number is only useful if you know when to trust it and where it breaks down. This guide covers the mechanics of prediction market pricing, signal quality indicators, and the interpretation mistakes sophisticated investors make.
Methodology
How we forecast
Prediction markets proved the model works - $10B monthly volume, outperforming polls and pundits. We take those raw signals and translate them into intelligence you can act on.
Aggregate
Prediction market prices from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus. Macro data from FRED, ECB, ONS. Alternative data from property registries and trade flows.
Model
Proprietary probability models that weight market signals, fundamental data, and historical base rates. Every forecast has a confidence interval.
Interpret
Raw probabilities become portfolio-relevant intelligence. If/then scenario trees, cross-asset impact analysis, and actionable timeframes.
If
UK capital gains tax rises to 28% in 2027 Budget
Then
Mediterranean property demand from UK investors +15-22% within 18 months
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